NHS Nursing pay rise 2024: What can we expect, and when?

With a change of Government currently taking place, a new pay offer is expected soon, however there are several other factors that could still come into play.

There’s a real feeling of déjà vu in the air, because yet again an expected announcement about the NHS pay rises for 2024 has not materialised.

The recent general election was of course a reasonable excuse. But speculation is still building about what 2024’s pay rise might look like for NHS Nurses, and when it might come.

Here’s what we know so far.

How much is the NHS nurse pay rise likely to be?

In recent months, various analysts and experts have suggested that a pay rise of either 2% or 3% seems most likely.

The prediction from NHS Pay Scales, the NHS’ official pay resource, is an increase of between 2.5% and 3%.

Importantly, NHS England also submitted to the NHS Pay Review Body that the pay rise must not exceed 2%.

It suggests that current funding levels simply couldn’t afford a higher pay rise without impacting other aspects of staffing and service delivery.

What is the 2-3% pay rise based on?

The most important factor influencing the decision of NHS pay rises in 2024 is inflation.

Last year, pay rise decisions were heavily influenced by high inflation rates – which were hovering around 8%.

This year however, inflation is dropping. In fact, it currently sits at 2%.

Broadly speaking, any across-the-board pay rise should seek to meet the same mark as inflation. In other words, salaries ought to increase by the same amount as our everyday living costs.

When will the NHS nursing pay rise be implemented?

The 2023 pay rise was formally introduced in May 2023, so this year’s announcement is well overdue.

That in itself is a problem and has already created lots of criticism.

However, the pay increase will be backdated.

It’s also not a surprise that this year’s announcement is especially delayed.

The newly appointed Labour government will be keen to establish its own NHS position and policy, and announcing a pay rise is an important part of that.

Furthermore, it made little sense for an outgoing government to make such a challenging decision in a run-up to an election.

As frustrating as it is for NHS nurses, delays were inevitable in 2024.

Will there be an additional one-off payment in 2024?

In 2023 NHS Nurses received an additional one-off payment.

In 2024, it is not expected that this will be repeated.

The consensus is that in 2023, NHS pay had fallen well behind the curve and inflation was peaking. For many, the one-off payment was essential in limiting the damage.

The outlook for 2024/2025 remains challenging – but with inflation dropping, it isn’t as bad as this time last year.

What happens next?

An announcement is expected soon – perhaps in the next few weeks, but certainly in the next few months.

Of course, the more time that passes, the more complicated the situation becomes. Inflation could drop faster – or even rise again.

The Labour government may even want to make a statement by announcing a higher-than-expected rise, to show they are the government of the NHS.

We know what’s likely to happen, but as ever, we don’t know what’s for certain.

Have your say

As an NHS Nurse, what do you think would be a reasonable pay rise for 2024/25?

Share your view with other NHS Nurses around the UK.